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Long Term Portfolio Stocks in India – Sure Shot Large Cap Bets

27 Oct

‘Growth or appreciation’ is the primary goal of any stock investment regardless of your time horizon and risk profile. Dividends, buyback opportunities, merger-demerger benefits etc are secondary, although still significant in providing additional advantages to your equity portfolio.

Just going by that primary definition of ‘appreciation’ let me explain an easy way of picking safe and sure-shot long term portfolio stocks. I have two objectives here – first, to explain this simple methodology of picking steady growth portfolio stocks and second, to share a portfolio of 12 solid large cap stocks that one can blindly invest and forget for the next 10 or 20 years to build massive wealth. Well, I am not talking about lump sum investment here but one can keep buying these twelve stocks at every market correction opportunity OR at regular intervals (SIP) in order to build long term wealth. This is also an attempt answer some of the queries that I keep getting from the readers of this blog regarding steady portfolio stocks for long term.

The Methodology of Choosing Steady Growth Stocks

Now, over to the methodology – It’s actually a pretty simple technique and no rocket science. Please follow the following steps to arrive at your final list.

Step 1: First you have to make an initial list of about 50 stocks from multiple sectors/industries. This initial list can be easily made by taking all 30 Sensex stocks plus say 20 big names from the NSE Top 100 list. If you are confused here, start with the list of top 100 stocks in NSE itself.

Step 2: Now, since our aim is price ‘appreciation’ in the long term, we need to have a look at the long term chart of these companies. You can use Yahoo finance, Money Control or NSE / BSE charts to see the 10 year or 15 year chart of the companies shortlisted from Step 1. In this step, you have to pick all those companies which have a steadily upward going chart (which of course indicates price appreciation). E.g. the charts of HDFC Bank or Asian Paints look exceptionally good and not that of SBI or ONGC. Discard all those companies that don’t have a smooth upward looking price journey and you will be left with 15 or 20 good growth stories (price-wise or chart-wise)

Step 3: This list, of say 20 companies that have great looking charts, has to be further scrutinized for good growth parameters. Here, I simply look at the RoE (Return on Equity), RoCE (Return on Capital Employed) and Sales and Profit parameters of these stocks. I usually use the Screener site to check these parameters. For long term growth stocks, a steady RoE of say above 15 (preferably 20+), RoCE of above 20 (Preferably 25 or 30) and a positive sales and profit growth in double figures is more than enough. Don’t be surprised if you notice companies with an RoE of 50 or RoCE of 200 plus.

Step 4: Most of the stocks with from Step 2 and 3 may be having good growth parameters. Now, to drop a few more, please take a look at their Debt / Equity ratio, again using Screener. Here, for long term stocks, I would drop all those companies that have a Debt to Equity ratio of more than 25% (0.25). Ideally, one should pick zero debt companies here or the ones with Debt / Equity ratio as zero or nearly zero. Please note that in the case of Banking, Financial and NBFC stocks, one shouldn’t look at this ratio, as their primary business itself is borrowing and lending

The above four steps would leave you with a dozen or so stellar performers that you can invest in for solid long term gains.

Good and Not-So-Good long term charts

Here’re some examples of typical charts to go for, as discussed in Step 2. Please note that one has to look into the 10 or 15 year chart and NOT 2 or 5 year charts while hunting for potential long term portfolio stocks.

Exceptional growth stocks with great charts

Asian Paints

HDFC Bank

HUL

Pidilite

Decent companies with poor long term charts

Well, these are still portfolio stocks for historic reasons but they don’t necessarily fetch you the desired price appreciation. On the other hand, just by looking at their charts, one can figure out that they are good for medium term trading point of view whereby they offer many up and down cycles in the long term charts.

ONGC

SBI

My list of 12 Buy-and-Forget Long Term Portfolio Stocks

Based on the above screening, the following would be my list of long term portfolio stocks across industries. Ten of them are index stocks while two others are high growth non-index stocks with proven track record and continuous growth in the future as well.


1. Asian Paints Ltd
2. Bajaj Auto Ltd
3. Bajaj Finance Ltd
4. HCL Technologies Ltd
5. HDFC
6. HDFC Bank Ltd
7. Hindustan Unilever Ltd
8. Lupin Ltd
9. Maruti Suzuki Ltd
10. Pidilite Industries
11. Yes Bank Ltd
12. Zee Entertaintment Ltd

Now, all those who are looking for multibagger recommendations, from a few months point of view, may ask yourselves the following question. Would you put your hard-earned money in risky multibagger stocks OR in safe, established businesses that can return 10 or 15 times over a ten year period?

Happy Investing!

(Standard disclaimer: I am not a qualified investment advisor. Do your own research before investing or consult a certified financial advisor. I personally hold some of the above stocks in my long term portfolio)

3 Potential Multibagger Stocks that are Turn Around Stories

26 May

In the last bull run, so many Indian companies took their ambitions abroad in an effort to grow faster inorganically by acquiring foreign companies. Easily available loans and FCCBs made their dreams instant reality as lenders were ready to shell out money on these companies that had good brand value, niche technologies or product line up, steady revenue stream and consistent net profits too.

However, things began to go wrong for most of these companies as the perceived benefits of acquisitions didn’t really result in increased profits. On the contrary, adverse market conditions and integration issues played against them and they started piling up debts much faster than they could have ever imagined. Tata Steel, GMR Infrastructure, Suzlon, Lanco Infratech – the list goes on.

subex suzlon bilt

In this post, we will talk about three such companies (and their penny stocks) that made such oversees acquisitions. While they failed at that, they seem to have realized their mistakes, corrected them (or in the process of doing so) and now on the way to turn around themselves into profit stories yet again. Needless to say such company stocks can turn into multibaggers for any investor with high risk appetite! Of course, these are not portfolio stocks and hence one shouldn’t blindly invest all their money into them but a retail investor can consider a small exposure on risk-reward potential basis.

The stories of Subex, Suzlon and Ballarpur Industries

The turn around stories – and hence potential multibaggers – we are going to talk about today are Subex Ltd, Suzlon Energy Ltd, and Ballarpur Industries Ltd (Note: Read updates below).

1. Subex Ltd

Company website: http://www.subex.com/

History: Subex was founded by Subash Menon and Alex PJ (hence the name SubEx) in 1992. They initially dealt with fiber optics cables but shifted focus to niche Telecom software – primarily fraud management systems and revenue assurance software.

The company was steadily growing since its inception. However, in the boom that followed the DotCom fall they decided to acquire many small Telecom software companies abroad. Initially, all acquisitions were funded by cash and equities but then they started borrowing and raising funds via FCCB (foreign currency convertible bond) route as well. During this time, one of the founders and promoter left the company making it more like a family run company by promoters with questionable intentions. The debt of the company started piling up and the stock crashed from its high of 700+ to 20s in a matter of two years.

Investment rationale: After their original promoters were unceremoniously packaged out for all that went wrong in their hands, the new management took control over Subex in an attempt to clean up the company’s balance sheet. And they have been quite successful at that in just three years.

At the moment, the company is almost debt free and it’s on the growth path again. With a market cap of 500cr, annual sales figures or 300cr and a debt of just 50cr, and 100cr in free cash, it looks like an investment grade company again.

At the time of writing this post (May 2016), the stock is trading at around Rs. 10 and the book value is more than 5 rupees. The interest outflow is very negligible now and hence it really looks like a turn around story to me and a potential a multibagger.

Risks: With almost negligible debts, the only potential risk for this company is any adverse market conditions for Telecom players in Europe and Latin America.

2. Suzlon Energy Ltd

Company website: http://suzlon.com/

History: Suzlon is another great company that went from steady growth path to huge losses after their acquisition of the German company Senvion in 2007. This wind energy company reported their last profit in 2008-’09 and it has been steadily declining since then as they couldn’t manage their debt bill. The debt kept mounting at an alarming pace and when it hit more than Rs. 17,000 cr they had no other go but shelve off the German subsidiary, and it finally happened last year (2015).

Investment rationale: After exiting Senvion, the company still has a debt of around 8000Cr, however, only 4000Cr of this is long term debt an it’s payable only in 2019. There’re further FCCB bonds that may get converted into equities by 2023 and hence there’s no further equity dilution in the next seven years. Of course, there is still interest burden but it looks manageable as the company’s operating profit is steadily climbing since the Senvion sale. Further, the operating profit margin (OPM) on the standalone basis is climbing rapidly as there is no major expense or capital expansion taking place.

Last year, the Sun Pharmaceuticals’ Dilip Sanghvi acquired 23% stake in Suzlon Energy and this makes Dilip Sanghvi and Tulsi Tanti (original promoter and founder) – two big and reputed names – the main promoters of this company. With the NDA Government’s increased focus in the renewable energy (1,75,000MW in next 7 years) sector, Suzlon has also diversified into Solar Energy which is cheaper to produce and implement than wind energy. They intend to deliver 15,000MW installed capacity in India in the next five years, off which they already signed a 4000MW project recently with Andhra Pradesh government. The manufacturing capacity of Suzlon is now 4000MW per year with no new investment required. They now have enough working capital as well after exiting Senvion and hence there’s no need to borrow anything in the near future. Overall, things look great again for Suzlon and hence a potential multibagger over the next few years for patient investors.

Risks: While the company doesn’t need to pay off any of their debts in the next three years, they indeed need to pay interest on a regular basis and also maintain cash generation to pay off their loans in 2019. Another risk is any potential decision in favour of solar power vs wind power due to cost factors as Suzlon is still more than 75% a Wind Power company. The company’s book value is negative as of now and this is one of the biggest risks for any investor.

3. Ballarpur Industries

Update on June 08, 2016): This recommendation has been discontinued as the BILT – Sabah Forest Industries didn’t go through as expected. Read the news at this link.

Company website: http://biltpaper.com/

History: I vividly remember myself investing in this stock (BILT) almost 15 years back and making some money when things were going good for Ballarpur Industries – an Avantha group (that owns Crompton Greaves etc) company and a leading name in the Indian Printing and Writing paper market. It was a very good dividend paying company too at 25-30% dividend paid every year (They still pay dividends, although much lesser).

However, things began to go wrong with the company when it acquired a Malaysian paper company namely ‘Sabah Forest Industries Sdn’ for $260 million. Like many other Indian companies that we discussed above, they too piled up debts that now stands at a whopping Rs.6000 crores.

Investment rationale: BILT has already taken the corrective measures and they are in the process of selling the Malaysian arm. A deal has been finalized with the buyer (Pandawa Sakti Sabah Sdn) for $500 million (Rs.3300 Crore). The sale date is due in May 2016 following which BILT can write off half their debts instantly. This would allow them to focus back on the Indian arm and be the leader yet again. With the interest outflow reduced drastically, I believe that this company will be back on track again and the stock can appreciate from here own and yield significant return for its investors. Further, the book value is still around Rs.25/- per share which is significant higher than it’s current market price (CMP).

Risks: The Sabah sale final date has been pushed three-four times already by the buyer while an agreement is in place. If the deal is called off, just in case, it may be bad for the company.

Disclaimer

I am not an investment advisor but just a retail investor and trader like most readers here. Hence, please take professional help before investing in the stocks discussed here. I have vested interest in most of the stocks that I write about and you can check out my equity portfolio as a disclosure. I am not responsible for any loss or gain that you may make in the stock market after following the articles on my blog. Also, it is recommended that investors take positions in a staggered manner than investing in one shot in any of the stocks for that matter.

(At the time of writing this post, I am invested in Subex since several months and accumulated Suzlon shares recently. I have interest in buying BILT based on the Sabah sale news)

Happy investing!

20 Midcap Stocks For Accelerated Wealth Creation

15 Aug

midcap stock picks indiaIt is statistically proven that long term investments in equities (stocks) can outperform any other conventional form of investments or asset classes such as real estate, gold or bank/post office deposits. However, a lot of people hesitate to invest in the stock markets due to a number of reasons including risk of losing the capital, volatility in the stock market, confusion between speculative trading vs investment, and the uncertainty around the companies that they invest in or sheer lack of knowledge to pick the right stocks.

Investing in Mutual funds (Read Systematic Investment Plan or SIP) is probably the easiest and safest route to enter the stock market rather than going for direct stock investment. However, the return on investment can be much higher if you go for direct equities as long as you pick the right stocks and companies to invest in.

An ideal stock portfolio (Read my stock portfolio that I often update) should have a mix of large cap and midcap stocks across several sectors/industries to minimize your risks. However, if you are looking at a faster growth rate you can even think of a Portfolio that’s heavier on the Midcap side if not an All-Midcap Portfolio. Given below, is a list of 20 handpicked midcap stocks in India that I believe should offer significant wealth creation (at least four to five times, if not more) for investors in the next ten years.

My List of 20 Midcap Stocks

Most of the Midcap stocks in this list are those with the proven record of high return on investment (Based on the ROE, ROCE parameters, sales/profits growth numbers etc) over a period of time. I have also included a couple rather new players which I think will excel in their respective businesses and hence offer higher returns to investors. Further, these companies are run by excellent management and promoters too and hence the business health and longevity is not under threat.

Here’s my winner list:

1. Amara Raja Batteries
2. Apollo Hospitals Enterprises
3. Atul Auto Ltd
4. Aurobindo Pharma
5. Avanti Feeds
6. Bharat Forge Ltd
7. Britannia Industries
8. Cera Sanitaryware
9. Colgate Palmolive Ltd
10. Dewan Housing Finance Ltd
11. eClerx Services
12. IndusInd Bank
13. Kaveri Seed Company
14. Kitex Garments (Previously suggested)
15. Mayur Uniquoters
16. Motherson Sumi Ltd
17. Pidilite Industries
18. Torrent Pharmaceuticals
19. UPL Ltd
20. Zensar Technologies Ltd

(Some notable omissions include Page Industries, Eicher Motors etc which have run up quite a bit)

Investment Methodology

Since the markets have run up a lot, putting all your money as lump sum investment can be very risky at the moment. Hence the following is the methodology that I suggest.

  • Make a shortlist of 12-15 of the above midcaps for your investment. Give more weightage to sectors like Pharma, Banking and Auto ancillaries
  • Systematically buy these stocks either by putting a fixed amount per month into buying the shortlisted stocks or by adding these stocks at every market correction
  • Track your investment on a periodic basis for any change in fundamentals of the selected companies. You don’t need to track them on a daily basis as long as your choices are good and have a long term plan with them
  • Periodically (once a year may be) validate and check the sector-wise weightage of your holdings and readjust if required
  • Watch them grow! And do not let the market fluctuations affect your investment decision UNLESS the fundamentals of your invested companies change.

Disclaimer: I am not a qualified finance adviser or portfolio manager. Please consult the experts before taking any investment decision in the equity market. You may have to do further research on these stocks on financial portals, websites of these companies as well as mandatory filings by them before taking any positions. As a disclosure, I have investments in many of the stocks mentioned above at the time of writing of this post.

Related Posts

10 Multibagger Midcap Stocks in India
10 Small Cap Stocks with Growth Potential

Good luck with your investments!

How Restaurant Bill is Calculated in India? GST (and old VAT, Service Tax) Service Charge Calculation Explained

14 Jun

This post has been updated with the new GST rule as of July 1st, 2017.

With the introduction of GST, the restaurant bill calculation is pretty straightforward and simple. The following table summarizes the GST rates on restaurant bills.

Restaurant Type GST Rate
Non-AC, Non-Heated Restaurants without bar 12%
AC or Heated Restaurants (With or Without Bar) 18%
Restaurants attached to 5-Star Hotels 28%

Important:

  • Home delivered or takeaway food from restaurants categories listed above would still attract the respective rates, regardless of the fact that you are not availing Air conditioning or Heating services
  • The service charges in the particular restaurant, if any, should not be charged any GST because that’s already covered under GST. If any restaurant does so, you must raise your concern with the management
  • If a restaurant is charging GST but if their 15 digit registered GSTIN Number is not present in the bill, you don’t need to pay any GST
  • Further, you may check the validity of the GSTIN number present in the bill, by searching for the same at the following URL:
    Check for fake GST number


Old post on calculating restaurant bill based on VAT, ST, SC etc continues below…

How many times hasn’t your bloated restaurant bill left you clueless as to how components like VAT (Value Added Tax), ST (Service Tax), SC (Service Charge) etc are being calculated?

Worry no more…

Without complicating the matter much, let me explain how a typical restaurant bill break up is arrived at as per the prevailing taxing norms as of June 1, 2015.

VAT, ST and SC

The following are the rules for calculating VAT, ST and SC.

VAT is typically charged at 14.5% on all food items and non-alcoholic beverages (includes, packaged water, juices, mocktail etc).

VAT for alcoholic beverages and cocktails is 5.5%.

SC is charged at restaurant owner’s will. This can vary from 0% to 20%. This is like an in-built tip and if Service charge is levied, it has to be clearly mentioned in the menu.

ST is calculated at 5.6%. Service Tax is actually 14% and it is applicable on 40% of the total bill (Including food total + Service charge).

ST* = 5.6%, i.e. 14% of 40

Notes:
(i). As per the government rule, the Service Tax is applicable only to those restaurants and food joints having the air-conditioning or central air-heating facility
(ii). VAT should not be levied on the Service Charge part. There are some restaurants who do such wrong calculation practices (See comments section)
(iii). ST* has been hiked to 5.8% (Including Swachh Bharat Cess or SBC) after this article was written
(iv). ST* has been hiked further to a total of 6% (Including SBC and KKC – Krishi Kalyan Cess) in 2016

A Sample Restaurant Bill Calculation

Attached here is a sample restaurant bill that I recently (after June 1st, 2015) got from our family dine out.

indian restaurant bill with VAT, ST and SC
(Click on the image to Enlarge)

The table below explains how the above bill amount is calculated.

Please note that some restaurants may provide separate bills for alcoholic beverages and the food. In such cases the applicable VAT is different for both the bills.

Particulars Amount
A. Alcoholic Beverages
(330+680)
1010.00
B. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
(170+160+260+320+300+360)
1570.00
C. Service Charge @ 10% for this place
(10% of A+B)
258.00
D. VAT for Alcoholic Beverages @ 5.5%
(5.5% of A)
55.55
E. VAT for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages @ 14.5%
(14.5% of B)
227.65
F. Service Tax @ 5.6%, rounded
(5.6% of A+B+C or 1010+1570+258)
158.93
Total Net
(A+B+C+D+E+F)
3280.13


Hope that explains how the final rounded bill amount of Rs.3280/- is arrived at. Next time, please pay attention to your bill details because many restaurants may not have changed their billing system yet.

Happy Dining!

10 Small Cap Stocks that offer Significant Growth Potential

18 Jan

About two years back, I had recommended some decent midcap stocks most of which appreciated big time even before the current bull run started. I have been, since, trying to dig out some value picks in the mid cap segment but unfortunately, most of them ran up big time – much beyond their fair valuations. Let me concentrate on some pure small cap stocks this time with their underlying businesses holding very good growth potential and stock appreciation for the future.

Important: You may note that many of the stocks listed below, while still offering value, have run up a bit as well. The markets are at near all-time-highs and hence some of these stocks can go down sharply at some point. Hence it would be ideal to buy them in the ranges mentioned or take a staggered approach. Further, never put a lot of money into small caps stocks – not more than 10%-15% of your overall equity portfolio

 

Small Cap Stock Picks

(Company Name, Price on 18/01/2015, Buy Price Range)


1. Chaman Lal Setia Exports (80, 50-60)

2. Gujarat Foils (70, 48-55)

3. Goodricke Group (152, CMP and at dips)

4. Goodyear India (624, 450-480)

5. Hinduja Global Solutions (629, CMP and at dips)

6. JVL Agro Industries (20, 15-18)

7. Jyoti Structures (39, CMP)

8. Noida Toll Bridge Company (35, 24-28)

9. Nucleus Software Exports (199, At dips below 160)

10. Stylam Industries (83, At dips below 60)

 

Criteria for Selection

Some of the criteria used to pick the small cap stock mentioned here are:

  • Industry (Excluded Oils, Chemicals, Steel, Textiles etc)
  • Promoters (How trustworthy are they?)
  • Age & Stability of the company
  • Growth Numbers (Top and Bottom line)
  • Dividend Yield (As applicable)
  • Debt on Book (Zero or Manageable debt)

As you know, the biggest challenge for most small cap companies is managing the debt as they usually avail high interest loans. A big chunk of their profit flows out as interest repayment and that’s probably the main parameter that would define the growth potential of many of them.

Disclosure: As of writing of this post, I am invested in JVL Agro Industries. I plan to invest in at least 3-4 of the above listed companies as and when their stock quotes reach the ranges mentioned.

Disclaimer: I am not a qualified finance adviser or portfolio manager. Please consult the experts before taking any investment decision in the equity market. You may have to do further research on these stocks on financial portals, websites of these companies as well as mandatory filings by them before taking any positions.

Good luck with your equity investments!

Updates

June 01, 2015:

1. Chaman Lal Setia Exports: Hold

2. Gujarat Foils: Hold

3. Goodricke Group: Avoid/Exit (Growth outlook not exciting, Exit on any rally)

4. Goodyear India: Buy in the initially recommended range only

5. Hinduja Global Solutions: Hold

6. JVL Agro Industries: Hold

7. Jyoti Structures: Avoid/Book loss (No debt restructuring seen, Interest coverage poor)

8. Noida Toll Bridge Company: Buy in the initially recommended range only

9. Nucleus Software Exports: Book Partial Profit

10. Stylam Industries: Buy in the initially recommended range only

August 13, 2015:

1. Chaman Lal Setia Exports: Book Partial Profit (Stock already doubled from the recommended date and tripled from the recommended price!)

2. Gujarat Foils: Hold

3. Goodricke Group: Exited (See previous update) (Growth outlook not exciting, Exit on any rally)

4. Goodyear India: Buy in the initially recommended range only, Hold if you already entered

5. Hinduja Global Solutions: Hold

6. JVL Agro Industries: Hold

7. Jyoti Structures: Exited (See previous update)

8. Noida Toll Bridge Company: Hold

9. Nucleus Software Exports: Booked Partial Profit (See previous update), Hold the rest

10. Stylam Industries: Buy in the initially recommended range only, Hold if you already entered (Stock more than doubled from the recommended date/price)

Note: Due to lack of time, I will not be providing any more update on this particular list. The readers are expected to take further research based action on their holdings.