Just like most educated Indians, I have been avidly following all those election news, TV opinion polls, analysis on sentiments, geo-political changes etc. One thing I realized is that even those famous psephologists and some of my past idols – like Psephologist Prannoy Roy – aren’t doing a good job with respect to impartially airing their views. There’s a lot of mess on TV and Social media these days that we get to hear/read only twisted facts.
Finally, I decided to do my own state-wise analysis of the current (15th Lok Sabha) positions, changed geographical and political sentiments and analysis on newer parties. I am transferring the final outcome from Excel sheet to this blog post on what I see as the election results of Lok Sabha 2014 from the perspective of only the top 10 parties.
Please note that, I haven’t spent a lot of time on very small states and a change of +/- 5% is likely.
Top 12 Winning Parties of Lok Sabha Election 2014 (Predicted Results)
BJP – 145 – 150
INC – 90 – 95
BSP – ~30
Trinamool Congress – ~22
SP – ~20
AIADMK – ~20
JDU – ~20
CPM – ~18
BJD – ~15
Shivsena – ~10
YSR – ~10
DMK – ~ 8
These parties are likely to be followed by NCP, TDP, TRS etc. In my opinion, AAP is likely to get 4 seats in Delhi and nothing in other states. I was tempted to think about AAP’s chances in Haryana but it is a complicated situation whereby a major shift in vote share may not necessarily get converted into a seat. In other states, I believe AAP will not do any magic and Kejriwal himself may lose on a huge margin.
Big States for BJP and Congress
The biggest state for BJP, in my opinion, would be Madhya Pradesh where the sentiments are very strong following the recent Assembly elections. This should be followed by Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, UP and Karnataka in that order.
For Congress, it is pretty evenly distributed among Maharashtra, UP, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and other smaller states.
Now that, the BJP is likely to be single largest party and with their allies (NDA) they could get around 200 seats, it is highly likely to be a bad situation post this elections. Further, even after securing 200+ seats on their own, the current UPA II government couldn’t do much. So what would be the state of the next government if BJP doesn’t get at least 200 on their own?
Unfortunately, things don’t look all that good for India. It’s time we embraced a Two-Party political system with all regional parties forced to dismantle and align to two major national parties.
I am not a Modi, Kejriwal or Rahul fan nor do I belong to any of the above parties. Further, I was raised in a Marxist family and have been influenced by socialist principles. However, I never voted based on the party flag but went with individuals whom I thought are good and capable. I will be doing the same for this election as well.
(I wouldn’t be encouraging a discussion on this post. It is maintained only to assess myself in terms of my analytical capabilities. Further, I am doing it more as a pastime post my retirement :) )