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Lok Sabha Election 2014 – My Prediction

Just like most educated Indians, I have been avidly following all those election news, TV opinion polls, analysis on sentiments, geo-political changes etc. One thing I realized is that even those famous psephologists and some of my past idols – like Psephologist Prannoy Roy – aren’t doing a good job with respect to impartially airing their views. There’s a lot of mess on TV and Social media these days that we get to hear/read only twisted facts.

Finally, I decided to do my own state-wise analysis of the current (15th Lok Sabha) positions, changed geographical and political sentiments and analysis on newer parties. I am transferring the final outcome from Excel sheet to this blog post on what I see as the election results of Lok Sabha 2014 from the perspective of only the top 10 parties.

Please note that, I haven’t spent a lot of time on very small states and a change of +/- 5% is likely.

Top 12 Winning Parties of Lok Sabha Election 2014 (Predicted Results)


BJP – 145 – 150
INC – 90 – 95
BSP – ~30
Trinamool Congress – ~22
SP – ~20
AIADMK – ~20
JDU – ~20
CPM – ~18
BJD – ~15
Shivsena – ~10
YSR – ~10
DMK – ~ 8

These parties are likely to be followed by NCP, TDP, TRS etc. In my opinion, AAP is likely to get 4 seats in Delhi and nothing in other states. I was tempted to think about AAP’s chances in Haryana but it is a complicated situation whereby a major shift in vote share may not necessarily get converted into a seat. In other states, I believe AAP will not do any magic and Kejriwal himself may lose on a huge margin.

Big States for BJP and Congress

The biggest state for BJP, in my opinion, would be Madhya Pradesh where the sentiments are very strong following the recent Assembly elections. This should be followed by Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, UP and Karnataka in that order.

For Congress, it is pretty evenly distributed among Maharashtra, UP, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and other smaller states.

Hung Parliament?

Now that, the BJP is likely to be single largest party and with their allies (NDA) they could get around 200 seats, it is highly likely to be a bad situation post this elections. Further, even after securing 200+ seats on their own, the current UPA II government couldn’t do much. So what would be the state of the next government if BJP doesn’t get at least 200 on their own?

Unfortunately, things don’t look all that good for India. It’s time we embraced a Two-Party political system with all regional parties forced to dismantle and align to two major national parties.

Disclaimer

I am not a Modi, Kejriwal or Rahul fan nor do I belong to any of the above parties. Further, I was raised in a Marxist family and have been influenced by socialist principles. However, I never voted based on the party flag but went with individuals whom I thought are good and capable. I will be doing the same for this election as well.

(I wouldn’t be encouraging a discussion on this post. It is maintained only to assess myself in terms of my analytical capabilities. Further, I am doing it more as a pastime post my retirement 🙂 )

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Anti-Nepotism Online Campaign for Loksabha Election 2014

Friends,
We are living in a Democratic country. Democracy provides you the freedom and power to elect the representatives who can make decisions on our behalf in order to take this country forward.

Today, the eligibility of candidates contesting for parliament or state assembly elections is decided based on too basic parameters such as citizenship status, minimum age, criminal conviction status etc. From time to time, the educated citizens in this country have asked for stricter norms such as minimum educational qualifications, upper age bar and so on. However, going by the constitutional rights of the citizens of India, it may not be practical to implement such amendments in the near future.

nepotism in india

Yet another virus that is affecting the democratic process and progress of this country is Nepotism in politics. Favourism granted to the relatives of family members of politicians has reached such a pathetic state where several members of the same family get to contest a particular election (E.g. Three members of the Paswan family contest the forthcoming Loksabha elections). This is so easily done and manipulated by the crooked politicians because the people have no say in deciding who can contest even before deciding whom to vote for. Further, Nepotism is one of the reasons why most of these politicians and their families turn corrupt.

While constitutional changes or even an Anti-Nepotism bill may be close to impossible, we as voters always have the chance to vote out those who run politics as a family business. We have to decide whether 20 or 30 families out of the millions in this country can continue to play with our future, just because they get to contest and win elections by playing vote bank politics, caste-regional politics and other inherited means.

So during the forthcoming Loksabha election, let me request my fellow citizens to do the following.

1. First, enroll yourself in the Voters list and please Do vote on the election day.

2. If you know of any candidate who got a ticket by Nepotistic means, please alert voters and fellow citizens by word of mouth, social media shares etc to spread awareness. There are already many familiar names out there ( Gandhis, Gowdas, Yadavs, Paswans, Karnunanidhis etc) but there may be a lot more that we don’t know; So let us spread awareness by all possible means.

3. Do not vote for Nepotists – especially who haven’t done anything at all for the social well-being or progress of the nation even at his/her lowest capacities prior to this election. Even if they have done something in the past, if you believe that there could have been a better candidate, reject them outright. Please think beyond your political views for once.

4. If you don’t find a suitable candidate in your constituency, please use the ‘Reject all candidates’ button. Let us hope this new mechanism introduced this year is going to work and make things better in the future.

Please share this note with your friends and contacts. Let us send this message loud and clear and work towards a cleaner and truly democratic election process. While for every election, we try to vote and elect people based on our best judgment, let us try to make Anti-Nepotism as the theme for this Loksabha election. Because, uprooting nepotism is one of the key steps towards fighting corruption!

The link to the Facebook Online Campaign is below:
Anti-Nepotism Online Campaign for Loksabha Election 2014 – Facebook link

Thank you,
An Indian Citizen

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What Indian Politicians Said About Obama’s Win?

So what were the Indian politicians’ reactions after Obama’s won the Presidential elections for second time?

(Please note that these are fake remarks intended for humour alone and hence readers are requested not to get offended by the same)

Indian politicians about Obama

Digvijay Singh

I have solid evidence that Obama took huge sum of money from anti-social elements in order to drive his election campaigns not only this year but in 2008 as well. And the US presidents should not involve their families in political matters and election campaigns (they should instead create political heirs like Indian political parties do)

P Chidambaram

Statistically speaking, although Obama won, there might have been a percentage of technical error that affected the final outcome for Mitt Romney. We intend to fix this over the next 40 years, via stringent measures and policy creations without which the GDP growth of 0.0001 percent cannot be achieved nor can inflation be brought down under 20%.

Mamata Banerjee

Obomo treat Bongol like step sohn. This is not occeptoble and all his peepal are CPI(M) cadres, Maoist cadres…. The real ‘Poriborthan’ is what we need just like we are doing in Bongol.

Arun Jaitley

The voters are entrusted the Obama yet again just like the aam admi did it for UPA in 2009. I am sure they will regret the mandate given by them sooner or later. I believe that the Republicans will form a very supportive opposition (just like we are doing) to take the country to the next level. At BJP, we believe that they have a bigger role to play (to make sure that the house is disrupted in every single session) in this context.

Sitaram Yechury

We will not let Obama take up any development activities in the US – especially anything that affects the common man. Our Polit bureau is closely watching the developments and we intend to come up with our white paper soon. As for Mitt Romney, he’s no saint either. We hope to see a Chinese immigrant or genuine Socialist Russian leader leading the United States soon. (As for us, we will not let anyone rule, we don’t want to rule either, we are just genuine activists concerned about all types of development activities)

Bal Thackeray

Obama won just because of the immigrants who are causing trouble all over the nation. If the US president dares to visit in India again, I warn that Shiv Sainiks will spoil all cricket pitches in India.

Devegowda

Mitt Romney lost because he did nothing for the farmers. Only those who support farmers will be supported by our party (so that we can acquire as many farm lands and farm houses as possible). I hope to see Obama taking up more farmer friendly policies (such as making Ragi Muddhe available in the White House Canteen)

Nitish Bharadwaj

We will fight till Obama gives special economic status to Bihar. However, I will not accept the economic package if Modi is teaming up with Obama.

Narendra Modi

Have you seen his Billion Dollar bailout girl friend err… wife? She did the trick for him. (Obama: If you don’t like billion dollar girlfriend, why don’t you tell us more about your simple school teacher village wife)

Yeddyurappa

This is all black magic. Obama did black magic with the help of two famous Californian and Iowan black magicians. On top of this, he also visited 100 Hindu temples in 10 days and got the job done by bribing gods. I had advised Romney to visit at least 200 temples but he didn’t listen to me, fearing me to snatch power. See what happened now?

Kejriwal

Obama must RESIGN first and face election again. Mitt Romney is no saint either and he should RESIGN as well. And if there are any other contender out there, he is corrupt and they should all resign. Resign! Resign!! Resign!!!

…and…

Manmohan Singh

Mmm… Grin… Sigh… (Gets up, looks at the match referee Soniaji for approval and hesitantly waves at Obama like a Cricket umpire feebly signaling a boundary hit by ‘The Sachin’)

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Gandhian satyagraha v/s modern fasting by politicians

Former Andhra Pradesh chief minister Mr. Chadrababu Naidu has been fasting for almost a week now for the rights of his farmer friends who according to him should get a reasonable compensation for their lost crops. After a few days into his fasting, Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy, who believes he could be the Andhra CM one day, has entered the fasting game as well. The fasting trick played by these politicians, as everyone probably knows, is not really in the interest of any farmer or citizen but for their own vested interest around their political career.

Satyagraha as defined by Gandhi

Satyagraha – or a practice of disciplined fasting – was defined and spread by Gandhiji under the following conditions:

1. harbour no anger

2. suffer the anger of the opponent

3. never retaliate to assaults or punishment; but do not submit, out of fear of punishment or assault, to an order given in anger

4. voluntarily submit to arrest or confiscation of your own property

5. if you are a trustee of property, defend that property (non-violently) from confiscation with your life

6. do not curse or swear

7. do not insult the opponent

8. neither salute nor insult the flag of your opponent or your opponent’s leaders

9. if anyone attempts to insult or assault your opponent, defend your opponent (non-violently) with your life

10. as a prisoner, behave courteously and obey prison regulations (except any that are contrary to self-respect)

11. as a prisoner, do not ask for special favourable treatment

12. as a prisoner, do not fast in an attempt to gain conveniences whose deprivation does not involve any injury to your self-respect

13. joyfully obey the orders of the leaders of the civil disobedience action

14. do not pick and choose amongst the orders you obey; if you find the action as a whole improper or immoral, sever your connection with the action entirely

15. do not make your participation conditional on your comrades taking care of your dependents while you are engaging in the campaign or are in prison; do not expect them to provide such support

16. do not become a cause of communal quarrels

17. do not take sides in such quarrels, but assist only that party which is demonstrably in the right; in the case of inter-religious conflict, give your life to protect (non-violently) those in danger on either side

18. avoid occasions that may give rise to communal quarrels
19. do not take part in processions that would wound the religious sensibilities of any community

Though I still do not believe that Satyagraha was/is the right mechanism to protest, Gandhiji, at least had a genuine goal to achieve and it wasn’t any vested interest for himself. Moreover, he lived a clean life underlined by truth which none of the modern Indian citizens would be able to live – forget alone the politicians.

The modern fasting on the other hand, is almost always with vested interest. Moreover, I think it’s about time the Goverment of India prohibited such practices (along with Hartals, Bandhs etc) to keep the dirty side of politics away from our system.

In my opinion, fasting for days together is an attempt to kill self and such people should be even booked for their attempts to commit suicide which is prohibited by law in India and hence is a punishable crime.

For years together we Indians have developed this attitude of succumbing to the pressure built by those who fast. Let’s not do that any more. Fasting, self immolation etc are things of the past and we do not want such things in India. What say?